Rising political polarisation is associated with increased political violence and unpredictable oscillations in government policies, according to the latest Political Risk Index by Willis (NASDAQ: WTW), a leading global advisory, broking, and solutions company. This edition of the Index focusses on political polarisation in countries worldwide and its main drivers and consequences.
Findings from the index reveal affective polarisation* is at a historic high, on a global average basis. This suggests that people are increasingly likely to perceive supporters of opposing political parties as hostile. Countries enduring violent political conflicts tend to be the most polarised, but on average, affective polarisation is rising fastest in democracies like the US, Germany, India, Brazil and Bulgaria.
The index also covers ideological polarisation** (the degree to which people agree on core policy issues) and elite polarisation*** (the degree to which political rivals consider each other as legitimate). The US is the only country globally where affective, ideological and elite polarisation have all increased at a rapid pace over the past 15 years.
After reviewing over a century’s worth of data from more than 200 countries, Willis found that in democracies, surges in polarisation tended to follow economic crises or corruption scandals, which appeared to discredit traditional political leaders. These surges were often accompanied by the growth of populist political movements and an increased frequency of political violence events.
Other key findings include:
• The highest levels of affective polarisation globally are in countries where political competition happens along ethnic or religious lines.
• Long-serving political leaders and controversial populists are a polarising force in several countries.
• Geopolitical and foreign policy divides can also lead to polarisation of societies.
• Polarisation and populism are rising both in the US and Europe and in the emerging world.
The research also identifies some hopeful trends. Truth and reconciliation processes, cross-party coalitions, and open and transparent investigations in cases of corruption or other crises have been accompanied by rapid reductions in political polarisation in the past. There is reason to believe that lessons from these examples could be applied to current challenges.
Sam Wilkin, director of political risk analytics at Willis, said: “There is a well-established correlation between polarisation and political violence. But polarisation is also being felt on a more personal basis, such as how we perceive our friends and colleagues. Businesses face growing challenges from operating in increasingly polarised societies.”