Aeolus Capital Management Ltd. (“Aeolus”) and Cornell University’s Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences today announced the launch of a research collaboration focused on hurricane track modeling.
The study, led by Dr. Pete Dailey, Head of Research at Aeolus and a renowned expert in climate catastrophe model development and analytics, will be a quantitative study modeling hurricane landfall risk using an open-source hurricane hazard model, developed by Dr. Jonathan Lin, Assistant Professor in the Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at Cornell. The research will specifically look at the use of counterfactual event simulation to explore the sensitivity of landfall risk to key climate and weather factors in play during the Atlantic hurricane season.
Dr. Pete Dailey said, “We’re delighted to work with Dr. Lin to develop innovative applications of his hurricane track and intensity model. Counterfactual analysis (“CFA”) considers scenarios that run counter to what actually played out in a real-world event. CFA asks “what if” these scenarios had played out, or were to, in the coming season?”. Dr. Dailey added, “Today’s weather models produce ensemble forecast for storms like Katrina, Harvey and Ian which contain hundreds of counterfactuals, some stronger and costlier than the real events. Applying CFA helps us think critically about risk and better plan for an uncertain future.”
Dr. Jonathan Lin stated, “We are thrilled to kick off this collaboration with Aeolus as part of a broader effort to strengthen academia–private industry partnerships. Together, we aim to advance our understanding of tropical cyclone risk in both today’s climate and in future climate scenarios. We believe that close cooperation between academic researchers and private industry leaders is essential to tackling the complex challenges of climate risk.”